Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. State polling averages are adjusted based on national trends, which means candidates’ averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls. Read more about the methodology. In 2023, we made changes to the way we calculated our favorability, approval, generic congressional ballot and national 2024 Republican primary polling averages. Data for the old versions of these averages is available for download here. Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us an email. Who’s ahead in the New Hampshire 2nd District House general election? An updating average, accounting for each poll’s recency, sample size, methodology and house effects. Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. Read the full methodology here. If you can’t find a contest in the dropdown menu above, it’s because there hasn’t been enough polling in that state yet. We’ll add new polling averages and forecasts as soon as the data is available. Not all polls are created equal, so our forecasts are calculated based on weighted polling averages . The weights account for the quality of each poll based on its track record and its methodological standards. They also account for sample size and how recently it was conducted; recent polls are weighted much more heavily than older ones. Latest forecasts and polls for the 2022 Senate elections from ABC News’s FiveThirtyEight.